* Returns are after all fund expenses. Source: Dalbar, Inc. Average Fund
Investor: The aggregate action of all investors. The return is calculated by
treating aggregate mutual-fund industry flows as representative of the
average investor.
Investors are prone to certain
emotional - and often irrational - biases that affect their ability to make
sound decisions about money. There is even an increasingly popular academic
field, called behavioral finance, that explores the motivations luring deep
in an investor's mind. Some of the principles include:
1) The recognition that the major mistake people make is that they are not
very good at dealing with a lot of uncertainty. Rather than a rational
assessment of data and probabilities they like stories, and they make
decisions based more on mental images rather than a sober assessment of
their portfolio and how to incorporate any new information.
2) People tend to chase returns and are buying whatever the new hot product
is which leads to people first picking the investment, rather than deciding
how the portfolio should be allocated.
3) Overconfidence is a common flaw. Men tend to be more
overconfident than women, and men tend to trade more actively than women,
which usually ends up hurting their overall returns. People tend to think
they know more than they actually do, which leads to a false sense of
security.
4) Investors also tend to feel more secure in their choices when following
the herd, or doing what everyone else is doing. This is the idea that
investors feel more comfortable in making financial decisions that are
validated by the action of others, and tend to feel scared when they see
others taking an opposite approach.
5) People tend to focus too much on what has happened recently and
overreact. This is true in terms of positive events as well as unfavorable
and unsettling negative events. Investors tend to overreact in bull markets
by continuing to buy winning asset classes, such as dot-com stocks, and also
explains why the bottoms of bear markets tend to have such climactic
endings.
6) Investors tend to project recent patterns into the future. There is this
tendency to buy the stocks or mutual funds that did well last year, buying
last year's story.
7) Some investors become "anchored" to certain reference points that
influence there decisions. This includes assuming economic factors are
unchanged, or that certain prices always remain the same.
8) Investors are reluctant to sell at a loss, and conversely, are inclined
to sell (sometimes too early) because they want the positive reinforcement
that comes from securing a gain. They tend to hold on to their losers and
sell their winners.
9) Some tend to treat money differently based on where it came from or where
they hold it. An example is that many treat tax-return money as lottery
winnings or found money.
Once these patterns are
recognized action to avoid these emotional pitfalls are:
A) Create a formal financial plan and stick to it. The plan should be based
on your individual goals and time parameters.
B) Try not to get distracted by the constant stream of information, changing
opinions, and brokerage statements values.
C) Keep a long-term perspective, remain adequately diversified, and
rebalance your portfolio. Trim back on areas that have become inflated, and
buy things that are temporarily depressed or don't necessarily appear to be
in vogue at the time.
The bottom line is: Taking the emotion out of the decision increases the
chances that it will result in a rational move and raises the possibility of
achieving a successful outcome.