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August 2019

Well, it is summertime and the equity markets are acting like . . . the equity markets! Some of the blame for recent volatility is going to the trade war with China. We believe that is merely the excuse of the day.  Unlike the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs, which exacerbated the Great Depression, this is a trade war with China utilizing targeted tariffs designed to force them to “play fair,” economically. The longer this goes on the more opportunity Europe, South America, and other Asian countries to replace China in various manufacturing efforts; not to mention potentially returning jobs to the U.S. 

 

With earnings coming in strong, employment better than almost any time in our lives, very accommodating interest rates, and rising wages, we are in a pretty good place. Forward price-earnings ratios (P/E) are at or near long-term historic averages, so any weakness most likely would come from geopolitical noise, not from market fundamentals. Thus, an immediate recession would likely be mild. There is simply not that much to burn off.

 

As a reminder, our office is now able to assist with Medicare Enrollment, Supplements, Advantage, and Prescription Drug Plans. Call our office at (520) 544-2500 if you are interested in reviewing your options and possibly saving some money and ask to speak with Christina or our Portfolio Manager Assistant, Stephanie.

 

Please take a moment to look at our new and improved website, www.siatucson.com.  Rick and Portfolio Manager Assistant Kataya have done a great job on the new look. We welcome your feedback. So please take a look and let us know if there is other information you would like to see included there. We hope you are having a great summer! It’s hard to believe that football season is almost here. Thank you as always for your business and referrals.

 

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.